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Development and application of a risk prediction model for lower limb deep vein thrombosis in stroke recovery patients

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Author:
No author available
Journal Title:
Guangdong Medical Journal
Issue:
7
DOI:
10.13820/j.cnki.gdyx.20240694
Key Word:
脑卒中;下肢深静脉血栓;影响因素;风险预测模型;列线图;stroke;lower limb deep vein thrombosis;influencing factors;risk prediction model;column chart

Abstract: Objective To investigate the incidence and influencing factors of lower limb deep vein thrombosis(DVT)in patients during the stroke recovery phase and to develop a predictive risk model for DVT in this patient popula-tion.Methods A retrospective study was conducted involving 431 stroke recovery patients.Influencing factors for DVT were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.A risk prediction model was constructed based on these factors and presented using a nomogram.The model's predictive performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristics(ROC)curve(AUC),sensitivity,and specificity.Internal validation was performed using the Bootstrap method.Results Among the 431 patients,36 developed DVT,yielding an incidence rate of 8.35%.In the modeling group(301 patients),26 cases of DVT were observed(8.64%),while in the validation group(130 patients),10 cases of DVT were recorded(7.69%).Logistic regression analysis identified modified Barthel index(MBI)score,Caprini DVT risk score,mean platelet volume(MPV),creatinine(Cr),thrombin time(TT),and D-dimer as independent risk factors for DVT in stroke recovery patients(OR=0.978,1.186,0.662,0.979,1.043,and 1.766,respectively,all P<0.1).A nomogram based on these six factors was developed.The model showed good predictive performance with an AUC of 0.842 in the modeling group,a Youden index of 0.525,a diagnostic value of 0.115,sensitivity of 0.833,and specificity of 0.692.Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test yielded x2=7.458,P=0.589.In the validation group,the AUC was 0.720,with a Youden index of 0.425,a diagnostic value of 0.072,sensitivity of 0.675,and specificity of 0.700(Hosmer-Lemeshow x2=11.414,P=0.248).Conclusion Stroke re-covery patients exhibit a high incidence of DVT.Key factors such as MBI score,Caprini DVT risk score,MPV,Cr,TT,and D-dimer significantly influence the risk of DVT.The constructed nomogram provides personalized risk predictions for DVT,facilitating targeted intervention measures by healthcare professionals.

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