目的:定量研究中国人群高血清LDL-C归因死亡及伤残调整寿命年（DALY）。方法:利用2017年全球疾病负担研究（GBD2017）中国及各省数据，由人群归因分值（PAF）、归因死亡数及DALY，描述2017年高血清LDL-C对中国分性别、年龄别、疾病和不同省份人群归因死亡及伤残负担，利用GBD世界标准人口做标化后比较各组死亡率及DALY率。结果:2017年中国人群全死因死亡中归因于高血清LDL-C的人数为862 759人，占8.25 %。归因死亡人数中有705 355人死于缺血性心脏病（IHD），占81.76 %，其余18.24 %死于缺血性卒中（IS）。高LDL-C对IHD死亡的PAF为40.30 %，对IS死亡的PAF为18.49 %。女性归因死亡比例高于男性，吉林省最高为13.70 %，浙江省最低为4.65 %。中国人群高LDL-C归因死亡率为61.08/10万，男性标化归因死亡率高于女性。高LDL-C造成的DALY为1 816.21万人年，其中归因IHD的DALY为1 394.15万人年，占76.76 %。DALY率为1 285.83/10万，标化DALY率最高的省份为黑龙江省，最低为浙江省。人群死亡归因分值、归因死亡人数、归因死亡率及归因DALY率均在>70岁人群较高，DALY在50～69岁年龄组最高，为856.18万人年。 结论:血清高LDL-C对中国人群归因死亡及伤残负担影响较大，且具有性别、年龄及省间差异。

Background::Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) has greatly damaged the health of patients and is accompanied by a dismal prognosis. The worldwide distribution of GBTC shows extensive variance and the updated data in China is lacking. This study was to determine the current status, trends, and predictions in the burden of GBTC over the past 30 years in China.Methods::This was a descriptive, epidemiological, secondary analysis of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study 2019 data. Data including incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of GBTC in China by year, age, and sex were assessed. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to evaluate trends of disease burden due to GBTC from 1990 to 2019. Nordpred age-period-cohort analysis was applied for the projection of mortality and incidence due to GBTC from 2019 to 2044.Results::Nationally, there were 38,634 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 27,350–46,512) new cases and 47,278 (95% UI: 32,889–57,229) patients due to GBTC, causing 34,462 (95% UI: 25,220–41,231) deaths, and 763,584 (95% UI: 566,755–920,493) DALYs in 2019. Both cases and rates of burden owing to GBTC were heavier among males and at old age. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs of GBTC generally increased from 1990 to 2019, with average annual percentage change at 0.8% (95% confidential interval [CI]: 0.6–1.0%), 1.3% (95% CI: 1.1–1.5%), 0.4% (95% CI: 0.2–0.6%), and 0.2% (95% CI: 0.1–0.4%), respectively. Even though the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized mortality rate in both sexes were predicted to decline gradually from 2019 to 2044, the number of new cases and deaths were expected to grow steadily.Conclusions::GBTC is becoming a major health burden in China, particularly among males and older individuals. Given the aging population and increasing burden, effective strategies and measurements are urged to prevent or reduce the number of new cases and deaths of GBTC.

Background::Hypertensive heart disease (HHD) poses a public health challenge, but data on its burden and trends among older adults are scarce. This study aimed to identify trends in the burden of HHD among older adults between 1990 and 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels.Methods::Using the Global Burden of Diseases study 2019 data, we assessed HHD prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates for individuals aged 60-89 years at the global, regional, and national levels and estimated their average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) between 1990 and 2019 using joinpoint regression analysis.Results::In 2019, there were 14.35 million HHD prevalent cases, 0.85 million deaths, and 14.56 million DALYs in older adults. Between 1990 and 2019, the prevalence of HHD increased globally {AAPC, 0.38 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.36, 0.41)} with decreases observed in mortality (AAPC, - 0.83 [95% CI, - 0.99, - 0.66]) and the DALY rate (AAPC, - 1.03 [95% CI, - 1.19, - 0.87]). This overall global trend pattern was essentially maintained for sex, age group, and sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile except for non-significant changes in the prevalence of HHD in those aged 70-74 years and in the middle SDI quintile. Notably, males had a higher HHD prevalence rate. However, HHD-related mortality and the DALY rate were higher in females. The middle SDI quintile experienced the largest decreases in mortality and the DALY rate, with a non-significant decline in prevalence between 1990 and 2019. There were significant discrepancies in the HHD burden and its trends across regions and countries.Conclusions::In the past three decades, there has been an overall increasing trend in the prevalence of HHD among older adults worldwide despite decreasing trends in mortality and the DALY rate. Better management of hypertension, and prevention and control of HHD are needed in older adults.

目的:分析1990—2019年中国人口老龄化对慢性非传染性疾病（慢病）负担的作用方向和强度，并预测2050年人口老龄化可能产生的慢病负担。方法:基于全球疾病负担研究数据，将1990—2019年中国人群疾病别伤残调整寿命年（DALYs）、早死损失寿命年（YLLs）、伤残损失寿命年（YLDs）的差距归因于人口年龄结构、人口规模和所有其他原因的贡献，使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测至2050年慢病产生的DALYs。结果:中国慢病导致的DALYs在1990—2019年期间增加了746.0万人年，其中年龄结构的贡献为186.0%（95% UIs：178.4%~193.6%），人口规模为77.0%（95% UIs：69.5%~80.8%），其他所有原因为-163.0%（95% UIs：-163.1%~-159.3%）。DALYs由252.7万人年的YLLs和493.4万人年的YLDs构成，其中年龄结构对YLLs和YLDs的贡献分别为414.6%（95% UIs：396.2%~432.5%）、69.1%（95% UIs：66.7%~71.4%）。2019—2050年期间，年龄结构变化使DALYs增加的慢病由高到低依次为：心血管疾病、肿瘤、慢性呼吸道疾病、神经失调、感觉器官疾病、糖尿病和肾脏病、肌肉骨骼疾病、消化道疾病、精神障碍、皮肤和皮下疾病。 结论:1990—2019年，除皮肤和皮下疾病外，其他类别慢病的归因负担均有上升，且以归因伤残负担为主。至2050年，多数慢病归因于人口老龄化的慢病负担可能持续升高。

目的:对我国人群结直肠癌疾病负担进行汇总更新。方法:基于2015年发表的1项系统分析，就其后有数据更新的GLOBOCAN、《中国肿瘤登记年报》（年报）和Cancer Incidence in Five Continents（CI5）3个数据源，新增全球疾病负担项目（GBD2017）、《中国死因监测数据集》和《中国卫生健康统计年鉴》（年鉴）3个数据源，摘录6个数据源中我国人群结直肠癌发病、死亡和伤残调整寿命年（DALY）、分部位构成变化等数据，主要采用世标率，分析最新疾病负担情况。应用Joinpoint Trend Analysis Software 4.7.0.0软件进行时间趋势分析。作为广义疾病负担的一部分，采用文献法汇总整理我国结直肠癌经济负担相关数据。结果:①现状：年报显示，2015年我国肿瘤登记地区结直肠癌发病率和死亡率分别为17.1/10万和7.9/10万，发病率男女性别比和城乡比分别为1.5和1.4，死亡率分别为1.6和1.4。与年报数据接近，死因监测数据显示，2017年我国结直肠癌死亡率为6.9/10万。GBD显示2017年我国结直肠癌所致DALY负担达425.4万人年（为1990年的2倍），占全球22.4 %。②趋势：年报数据显示，2009-2015年全国结直肠癌发病率和死亡率分别下降10.2 %和9.5 %，城市亦均下降，但农村均上升（增幅分别为20.0 %和15.2 %）；对应Joinpoint分析提示全国死亡率的平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）为-1.6 %（ P<0.05），其中城市发病率和死亡率均下降（AAPC分别为-1.5 %和-1.4 %）（均 P<0.05），农村发病率上升（AAPC为3.3 %）（ P<0.05）。年鉴数据显示，与2004年相比，2017年城市和农村死亡率分别增加9.8 %和20.6 %，但Joinpoint分析AAPC无明显变化（ P<0.05）。③分部位：年报显示2015年我国结直肠癌新发病例中，结肠癌、直肠癌和肛门癌分别占49.6 %、49.2 %和1.2 %，对应2009年占比依次为51.3 %、47.6 %和1.1 %，结肠癌占比始终为城市（>52 %）高于农村（<44 %）。CI5第Ⅺ卷细化部位信息显示，结肠癌以升结肠和乙状结肠居多。④经济负担：我国结直肠癌例均诊治费用年均增长率在6.9 %~9.2 %不等，患者确诊1年内的个人卫生支出约占其家庭收入的60 %。 结论:我国结直肠癌疾病负担近年整体平稳中可能略有下降，在农村的上升应关注；与前期研究一致，城市和男性仍为防控重点；结肠部位的癌症占比在城市更高，提示社会经济和医疗技术对疾病发生发现有影响。此外，结直肠癌所致经济负担在持续上升。

Background::Stroke is the leading cause of death in China, and predicting the stroke burden could provide essential information guiding the setting of medium- and long-term health policies and priorities. The study aimed to project trends associated with stroke burden in China through 2050, not only in terms of incidence and mortality but also for prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).Methods::Data on stroke rates in incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs in China between 1990 and 2019 were obtained from a recent Global Burden of Disease study. Demographic-specific trends in rates over time were estimated using three models: the loglinear model, the Lee-Carter model, and a functional time series model. The mean absolute percentage error and the root mean squared error were used for model selection. Projections up to 2050 were estimated using the best fitting model. United Nations population data were used to project the absolute numbers through 2050.Results::From 2019 to 2050, the crude rates for all measures of the stroke burden are projected to increase continuously among both men and women. We project that compared with those in 2019, the incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs because of stroke in China in 2050 will increase by 55.58%, 119.16%, 72.15%, and 20.04%, respectively; the corresponding increases in number were 2.19, 34.27, 1.58, and 9.21 million. The age-standardized rate is projected to substantially decline for incidence (8.94%), death (40.37%), and DALYs (43.47%), but the age-standardized prevalence rate is predicted to increase by 10.82%. By 2050, the burden of stroke among the population aged ≥65 years will increase significantly: by 104.70% for incidence, by 218.48% for prevalence, by 100.00% for death, and by 58.93% for DALYs.Conclusions::With the aging population in China increasing over the next three decades, the burden of stroke will be markedly increased. Continuous efforts are needed to improve stroke health care and secondary prevention, especially for older adults.

Background::Epilepsy accounts for a significant portion of the global disease burden. However, little is known about the disease burden of epilepsy in China and its provinces.Methods::We assessed the burden of epilepsy in China and its provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions from 1990 to 2019. Burden was measured as incidence, prevalence, deaths, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by age, sex, year, and province. We used the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) to determine the association between the provincial development level and age-standardized DALY rates of epilepsy from 1990 to 2019.Results::In 2019, epilepsy caused 1367.51 thousand (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 979.92–1837.61 thousand) DALYs, and the age-standardized DALY rate was 99.77 (95% UI: 71.33–133.52)/100,000. The age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates for epilepsy in China were 24.65/100,000 and 219.69/100,000, increased by 45.00% (95% UI: 8.03–98.74%) and 35.72% (95% UI: 0.47–86.19%) compared with that in 1990, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the proportion of DALY caused by epilepsy in the age group under 25 years steadily decreased. The proportion of DALYs caused by epilepsy in people aged 50 years and over increased from 9.45% and 10.22% in 1990 to 29.01% and 32.72% for male and female individuals in 2019, respectively. The highest age-standardized mortality rates were seen in Tibet (4.26 [95% UI: 1.43–5.66]/100,000), Qinghai (1.80 [95% UI: 1.15–2.36]/100,000), and Yunnan (1.30 [95% UI: 0.88–1.62]/100,000), and the lowest mortality rates were in Guangdong (0.48 [95% UI: 0.39–0.64]/100,000), Zhejiang (0.56 [95% UI: 0.44–0.70]/100,000), and Shanghai (0.57 [95% UI: 0.41–0.73]/100,000). The age-standardized DALY rates across the country and in provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions generally decreased as their SDI increased.Conclusions::The disease burden of epilepsy is still heavy in China, especially in the western provinces. The incidence and prevalence of epilepsy increased between 1990 and 2019, and the burden of epilepsy in the elderly increases gradually. This study provides evidence on epilepsy prevention and care of different regions in China.

目的:基于全球疾病负担研究2019（GBD 2019）数据对比分析1990—2019年中国和美国肺癌发病和死亡情况、发病率和死亡率的长期变化趋势以及危险因素。方法:使用GBD 2019数据库提取1990—2019年中国和美国按照不同性别和年龄组的肺癌新发病例、死亡病例、年龄标准化率数据，用于分析1990—2019年中国和美国基于不同性别和年龄组的肺癌发病和死亡情况。采用Joinpoint软件计算1990—2019年中国和美国肺癌年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）的年度变化百分比（APC）和平均年度变化百分比（AAPC），分析其长期变化趋势。采用伤残调整生命年（DALY）分析中美两国的肺癌死亡相关危险因素。结果:中国肺癌新发病例由1990年的25.70万例上升至2019年的83.29万例，ASIR由1990年的30.20/10万上升至2019年的41.71/10万；死亡病例由1990年的25.63万例上升至2019年的75.72万例，ASMR由1990年的31.18/10万上升至2019年的38.70/10万。美国肺癌的ASIR由1990年的58.87/10万下降至2019年的45.13/10万，ASMR由1990年的49.35/10万下降至2019年的36.11/10万。从性别上看，1990年和2019年中国男性的肺癌疾病负担高于女性，男性肺癌新发病例由1990年的17.90万例上升至2019年的57.62万例，ASIR由1990年的44.29/10万上升至2019年的61.74/10万；死亡病例由1990年的17.79万例上升至2019年的52.32万例，ASMR由1990年的46.33/10万上升至2019年的58.10/10万。中国女性肺癌新发病例数由1990年的7.81万例上升至2019年的25.67万例，ASIR由1990年的18.01/10万上升至2019年的24.76/10万；死亡病例数由1990年的7.84万例上升为2019年的23.40万例，ASMR由1990年的18.63/10万上升至2019年的22.86/10万。2019年，中美两国男性和女性肺癌发病率随年龄的增长呈先上升后下降趋势，中国男性和女性肺癌发病率均在85~89岁年龄组达到高峰；美国男性肺癌发病率在85~89岁年龄组达到高峰，女性发病率在80~84岁年龄组达到高峰。2019年，中国男性肺癌死亡率随年龄增长呈先上升后下降趋势，在85~89岁年龄组达到高峰，女性肺癌死亡率随年龄增长呈上升趋势，在≥95岁年龄组达到高峰；美国男性和女性肺癌死亡率随年龄增长呈先上升后下降趋势，分别在85~89岁和80~84岁年龄组达到高峰。1990年及2019年中国和美国各年龄组男性的发病率和死亡率均高于女性。Joinpoint软件分析结果显示，1990—2019年，中国肺癌ASIR和ASMR整体呈上升趋势，ASIR的AAPC为1.16%（95% CI为0.93%~1.38%， P<0.001），ASMR的AAPC为0.78%（95% CI为0.56%~1.01%， P<0.001）；1997—2004年ASIR和ASMR上升趋势最为明显，APC分别为2.84%和2.58%。美国肺癌的ASIR和ASMR呈下降趋势，ASIR的AAPC为-1.08%（95% CI为 -1.20%~0.96%， P<0.001），ASMR的AAPC为-1.05%（95% CI为-1.24%~-0.87%， P<0.001）。1990年及2019年中国和美国肺癌主要的死亡相关危险因素是吸烟，中国女性肺癌最主要的死亡相关危险因素为环境颗粒物污染。 结论:1990—2019年中国肺癌的ASIR及ASMR呈上升趋势，美国肺癌ASIR及ASMR呈下降趋势。2019年，中国男性和女性肺癌发病率均随年龄的增长呈先上升后下降趋势，男性肺癌死亡率随年龄增长呈先上升后下降趋势，女性肺癌死亡率随年龄增长呈上升趋势；美国男性和女性肺癌发病率、死亡率均随年龄增长呈先上升后下降趋势。1990年和2019年中国和美国各年龄组男性的发病率及死亡率均高于女性。吸烟是中国和美国肺癌主要的死亡相关危险因素，环境颗粒物污染是中国女性主要的肺癌死亡相关危险因素。

Background::Atherosclerosis-related diseases represent significant health issues among adults globally. Despite their widespread impact, comprehensive data concerning the global and national burden and trends of these diseases remain sparse. Our objective is to examine the trends in the burden of atherosclerosis among adults from 1990 to 2019 at both global and national levels.Methods::We reported the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of atherosclerosis-related diseases (ischemic heart disease [IHD], ischemic stroke, and peripheral arterial disease [PAD]) at the global and national levels among individuals based on a trend analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2019. We further analyzed these global trends as a function of age, gender, and the social development index. We also used joinpoint regression analysis to identify the year with the most substantial changes in global trends.Results::Globally, the AAPC of IHD incidence rose from 1990 to 2019 (0.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.12-0.28), with substantial surges in 1995, 2001, 2005, 2010, and 2017. Conversely, AAPC of IHD mortality rates exhibited a different trend until a rise in 2014. The AAPC of incidence rates of ischemic stroke and PAD also escalated during the same period, with respective 0.43 (95% CI, 0.39-0.48) and 0.13 (95% CI, 0.06-0.21). For ischemic stroke, both incidence and mortality soared in 2014, while PAD incidence declined in 1994 and 1998, then sharply climbed in 2016. Nationally, the Northern Mariana Islands experienced the steepest increase in IHD and PAD incidence and mortality between 1990 and 2019. China saw a significant rise in ischemic stroke incidence, whereas the highest mortality rate increase occurred in Timor-Leste. By sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile, low-middle-, middle-, and high-middle-SDI countries all showed upward trends in IHD, ischemic stroke, and PAD incidence. Simultaneously, IHD and ischemic stroke mortality rates, as well as DALYs, dropped in the low-, high-middle-, and high-SDI nations. However, PAD mortality rates and DALYs saw an uptick across all SDI quintiles. Regarding age demographics, a global decrease in the AAPC IHD incidence as noted in individuals above 55 years old, in contrast to an increase in the 20-55 age group during this period. AAPC of mortality rates for IHD, ischemic stroke, and PAD decreased across all ages. The AAPC showed an increase in IHD incidence in both genders. Conversely, IHD’s DALYs saw a reduction in both males and females. Ischemic stroke patterns mirrored these trends, whereas all measures for PAD exhibited growth for both sexes.Conclusions::From 1990 to 2019, there was an overall increasing trend in the global incidence of all three clinical manifestations of atherosclerosis. Between 1990 and 2019, both the mortality rate and DALYs for IHD and ischemic stroke declined across all age groups. Overall, the burden of atherosclerosis-related diseases has not significantly decreased and even shows signs of trending upward. These findings strongly suggest that despite some progress made, efforts to control atherosclerosis diseases globally need to be intensified.

Background::Colorectal cancer (CRC) still ranks the top in morbidity and mortality of cancers worldwide, posing a huge threat and burden to the society. We aimed to determine the age-standardized incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CRC and explore potential changes in the temporal trends of the CRC burden in Shanghai during 2002 to 2016.Methods::The cancer statistics and demographics were obtained from the Cancer Registry and the Statistics Bureau of Pudong New Area, respectively. Data from 2002 to 2016 were included and analyzed retrospectively. DALYs were calculated using DisMod and the age-standardized rates (ASRs) were obtained according to Segi world standard population. Joinpoint regression was used to measure the trends in CRC incidence and to estimate the annual percent change.Results::The increasing trend of CRC ASR incidence halted after 2014, coinciding with the introduction of the Shanghai CRC screening program. The ASRs of mortality and DALYs increased, at 0.42% ( P < 0.05) and 4.07% ( P < 0.001) per year, respectively, which were mainly driven by men and individuals aged above the CRC screening program target. Conclusions::The disease burden of CRC in Shanghai remains serious, especially among men, and individuals aged >74 years. The benefits of the screening program have been partially proven by the ASRs of CRC incidence, providing important insights into better and wider application of screening programs.